April 07, 2005

Boo Hoo economics

It irks me to see genuinely intelligent people making what would be rational statements that are nonetheless pathetic. Which is to say, it's the being naked that's bothersome not the notice of it because we've known for a long time. I'm referring to a Canadian Conference Board downgrade of its economic growth forecasts that appears in several media today (for example, in The Globe and Mail: Conference Board trims 2005 growth forecast again).

The lines that bother me the most are:

"The havoc the high dollar is wreaking on exports has led the Conference Board of Canada to trim its 2005 growth forecast again, even though it thinks the loonie has now stabilized."
The pathetic part is that what's being said is that Canadian business has no capability to compete for exports except with the artificial benefit of a currency-based discount. What a crappy trap to be satisfied with. Dollar's got to be weak or economy suffers because we're an export-based economy. D'uh!

Then there's this:

"However, the Ottawa-based think tank has left its forecast for growth in 2006 unchanged at 2.8 per cent.

It said it expects consumers to provide most of the strength in the economy over the next two years."

Consumers? You're kidding right? Has anyone looked at how unstettled consumer sentiment is month over month? What effect on consumer spending and sentiment do you think that rising gasoline prices is and will have? An issue raised near the bottom of the G&M article, noting that the Conference Board had not taken that little matter into account in its estimates yet.

This all hurts even to talk about.

Posted by Grayson at April 7, 2005 07:52 AM