September 07, 2004

You're right, the Internet will not last . . .

. . . as is. That's the catch. Too many prophets of doom around prognosticating the ultimate demise of the Internet. Their reasons are varied, including it's technical incapacity (SMTP? for this?), the quantum of viruses and worms that plague us, etc., etc. And, depending on the day, they get a full hearing from those who -- typically -- have good cause to wish for that result.

It's hard to argue with them because any argument about the future is conjecture and baloney. The "winner" is the one with the best load of historic support in the instant. However, the argument typically is a binary one: The Internet (as we see it today) will/will not survive. And that's the key. It won't.

What will happen is that it will lead to something else that's Internet-like but addresses the current shortcomings. That's the nature of evolution in nature and in the history of everything human: a step gets taken, fixed, and we move on.

Here's the article that prompted me: The Second Coming of the Internet, and the snip:

The Internet2, as its known, is presently available to 200 odd member institutions. The Internet2 community has developed a high performance network called Abilene. An important goal for the Abilene network is to provide a backbone network for the internet2.
Obviously there's more. But, the important thing to remember -- or find out, if this is your first encounter -- is that there are gnomes in Switzerland who are working on the next version of the Internet.

Posted by Grayson at September 7, 2004 08:11 AM