August 10, 2004

The Fed helps the re-election cause

Intentionally or not, the Fed gave a bit of a reprieve to the Republican efforts to hold the White House today. As everyone knows, they raised short-term rate to abate inflation. The consequence of this action is to imply that the economy is humming along just fine. An implication that is contrary to the worries raised by the employment numbers that came out last week.

Economists in round rooms . . . The Washington Post has it covered here: Predicting Growth, Fed Lifts Key Rate


The Fed's action appeared to dismiss concerns that the economic recovery is faltering again, just months before a presidential election that could hinge on perceptions of the economy's health. While presidents in the past have urged the Fed to keep rates as low as possible, President Bush characterized the Fed's last rate increase, in June, as a sign the economy is getting stronger.
But critics said that by blaming oil prices for the recent dip in economic growth, the Fed was playing down the role of weak job and income growth in cooling the economy.

Posted by Grayson at August 10, 2004 10:27 PM
Comments

Admit it, if they hadn't raised rates or lowered them you would have said it was helping the republicans.

Posted by: Director Mitch at August 11, 2004 01:05 AM

Nah, it would be inconsistent with the last post we sparred on. (Sidebar: I have a tremendous respect for Alan Greenspan -- and his predecessor, Volker, particularly in their long-proven independence from the Administration and Congress.) If rates were lowered, I WOULD have said, "there's more trouble for the White House because it's more support for the 'troubled economy' argument by the Dems." I think no change would have been the worst battlefield all around as that would suggest an uncertain environment where everyone can and will say anything about everything and not be really right or wrong.

Biggest issue is that the signal came from the Fed not from either party. That's significant.

Still, I admit that I may have done exactly as you said -- but only to make you crazy ;)

Posted by: TRDG at August 11, 2004 08:52 AM