The End of TV as we know it

The session I'm in is called 2006: The End of Television as We Know It. The presenter is Geoffrey Meredith. I've been enjoying it for about half an hour wihtout blogging. The gist of the message is in the title: digital television (recorders), etc. and the Web are changing the nature of television advertising. He's put a number of $54-billion lost (50% of the 20% of TiVo owners by 2006) in the television advertising business.

The essence of the message is that the industry now has to choose a new model, be it changing the nature of the ad structure themselves (block the commercials at one point in the program for those who are interested), better custom targeting (he had an interesting Bermuda tourism working demo here), better creative, linking to Internet versions, etc. Of course, not having an axe to grind nor shilling for anyone, he's done a fine job of annotating the level of denial in the industry (including a quotation from an industry executive who actually said that zapping commercials is illegal and they'll sue!).

Geoffrey Meredith

Among other things, he's suggested that the :60 commercial will be back. Most interesting to me, because it resonates with me and with the undercurrent of the conference, is that the consumer is going to be "invited" to engage (interactively or not) with a marketer's message to them. I can not underscore the importance of this paradigm change.

All of which has been interesting, and not just because he's providing research and quantitative evidence and samples. About 40 minutes in though, we seem to have shifted to the "next world" when interactive digital (HD?) television is real in a lot of homes. But it doesn't end there: Phase II will be the integration of television and Internet (heard this at the keynote this morning). Expecting it to be available by 2008 (when we've got 20Mbs pipe feeding the home). Naturally this will result in the single-screen "media center" environment so that programming is actually interactive. That means interactive selling.

For all this to happen, standardization will have to emerge technologically and with the consumer behaviour.

A problem identified, which we've identified in the Internet space, is privacy. Who gets and owns the information about what the consumer's doing? Another problem is legal: who owns the rights, and, to what exactly? Measurement will be a continuing problem because you can't tell who's watching the ads and who's zapping. In the spirit of industry denial though, does anyone really want to know?

And, as he ends his presentation: "It's just the tip of the iceberg."

Posted by Grayson at May 25, 2004 01:21 PM